Hyderabad The Lok Poll analytics team has released the results of a pre-poll survey for the upcoming Telangana state legislative assembly elections. The survey provides insights into the projected outcomes and voter sentiment in the state.
Key Findings:
*Indian National Congress (INC): Projected to win 61-67 seats out of the 119-seat assembly, with an expected vote share of 41% to 44%, positioning it close to a simple majority.
*Bharatiya Rashtriya Samithi (BRS): Projected to win 45-51 seats, with an anticipated vote share of 39% to 42%, making it the second-largest party in terms of seats.
*All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM): Expected to win 6-8 seats with a projected vote share of 3%–4%.
*Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Likely to secure 2-3 seats with a vote share of 10%–12%, while other parties are expected to win no more than 1 seat each.
BRS is facing significant anti-incumbency sentiment, both as a party and for its leader, Chief Minister KC Chandrashekar Rao.
INC has gained support from minorities and backward communities, including the numerically significant Munnuru-Kapu community.
INC is projected to perform strongly in several parliamentary constituencies, including Khammam, Mehbubabad, Nalgonda, Warangal, and Zahirabad, as well as in tribal-dominated areas.
BJP has witnessed a decline in seat and vote share since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, particularly in the northern parts of Telangana.
The survey reflects a clear bipolar contest between INC and BRS, with INC leading in vote share.
INC has seen an upswing in support, especially among rural and women voters, since announcing guarantees on September 17th.
AIMIM is expected to retain its support in Old Hyderabad but may face challenges making an impact beyond the city.
*Methodology:
The survey involved over 500 samples from all 119 assembly seats in Telangana, with a total of 60,000 samples collected between August 10th and September 30th. The survey was conducted in 30 randomly selected booths within each of the 119 constituencies.
The swing against BRS and the pro-INC sentiment can be attributed to unfulfilled promises and growing dissatisfaction with MLAs and local leaders of the ruling party.
*Conclusion:
The pre-poll survey suggests that the upcoming Telangana state legislative assembly elections have evolved into a clear contest between INC and BRS. INC is positioned to cross the halfway mark, benefiting from a slightly higher vote share compared to BRS. The survey indicates that INC’s seat share conversion is more favorable due to concentrated voter support. BJP is not perceived as a serious contender in the state, particularly in northern Telangana. AIMIM is expected to maintain its stronghold in Old Hyderabad but may face challenges outside the city.