Bengaluru: Karnataka Assembly Election 2023 counting days for voting has started. At the same time, major political parties are devising various strategies with the desire to win in maximum number of constituencies. But the voter has been giving unexpected results in every election. The results predicted are always not that accurate of any party or political analyst. Now the state Assembly election has come again, what will be the final result? Which party will form the government? This time too many questions have arisen whether it is an independent government or a coalition government.
If we look at the history of Karnataka Assembly elections, there have been many surprising developments. Even if one of the national parties win more seats, the total number of votes will fall. Similarly, another national party which gets more votes in the total votes will win fewer seats. This point has come to light when the history of the last four elections is observed.
In the total of 4 state assembly elections held since 2004, the Congress has secured the highest number of votes cast. Congress is in the first position, BJP is on the 2nd and JD (S). is on the 3rd position. Although the Congress has secured more votes in the last 4 elections, not all the votes have been converted into victory. So let’s know in detail the total number of votes, seats and position of Congress, BJP and JD (S) parties during this period.
In 2004, despite getting 35.3 percent of the total votes polled in this election, the Congress won only 65 constituencies. But the BJP won 79 constituencies with 28.3% votes. The JD (S) won 58 constituencies with 20.8% votes. Looking at the statistics of the results of this election, there has been no significant change in the Congress vote share. But only in the constituencies won by the party there is a huge fluctuation. Similarly, even though the number of votes obtained by the BJP is less, it has won more constituencies. A similar pattern is visible in the subsequent elections (except 2013).
ln 2008, the Congress got 34.8 percent of the total votes cast. However, they won only in 80 constituencies. Even though BJP got only 33.9% votes, it won 110 constituencies. JD (S) won 28 constituencies by getting 19% votes.
Congress won the 2013 elections with a clear majority due to a surprising development in state politics. The Congress formed the Government under the leadership of Siddaramaiah and ruled for a full term. Due to internal differences in the BJP, Yediyurappa left the party and formed the KJP. Similarly, B. Sriramulu founded the BSR party. Due to this, BJP took a big hit in the 2013 elections. In this election, Congress got 36.6 percent votes and won 112 constituencies. The BJP got only 19.9 per cent of the votes and won only 40 constituencies. The JD (S) got 20.2 percent votes and won 40 constituencies.
Yediyurappa’s new party, KJP, got 9.8 per cent votes and won 6 constituencies. This was a huge setback for the BJP. For this reason, Yediyurappa was persuaded to join the BJP again before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
In the last election, Congress managed to win only 80 constituencies, even though it got 39 percent votes. Though the BJP polled only 36.2 percent of the votes, it emerged as the single largest party, winning 104 constituencies. JD (S) won 37 constituencies by getting 18.3% votes.
In Old Mysuru, there is a strong rivalry between Congress and JD (S) in every election. BJP influence in this part is very less. This will make BJP second in total votes. There will be competition between Congress and BJP in the coastal region. JD (S) candidates are not fielded in some places in this part. Thus, Congress is ahead in the total votes cast in the elections.