Bengaluru: Congress, BJP and JD (S) parties are claiming majority in Karnataka Assembly elections this time. Some polls are in favor of Congress, while some polls are in favor of the BJP. However, all the political parties are worried about the creation of an unstable Assembly. The previous election results are proof of this! If there is no ‘external reason’, no party will get a majority in the state. This is a historically proven fact in Karnataka state politics.
If we look at the history of the last 25 years, general elections to the state Assembly have been held in 1999, 2004, 2008, 2013 and 2018. Out of these, only in 1999 and 2013 did one party get a clear majority. In 2008, BJP won the majority through operation. All are random results. There were strong ‘external reasons’ for the formation of clear majority governments in the state in 1999 and 2013. This is the ‘external cause’ for any party to get a majority in the state, there must be a ruckus in its rival party.
In the 1999 general elections, the Congress party won with a huge majority. It had won in 132 seats. The magic number required to form the government in the state is 113. However, the Congress party won a landslide victory with 40.8% votes. The reason for this is the split of the Janata Dal.
In the 1994 elections, the Janata Dal won 115 seats and came to power. It got 33.5 percent votes. Later, Janata Dal split into JD (U) and JD (S). Due to the split of votes between JD (U) and JD (S), Congress benefited massively. S. M. Krishna was the Chief Minister.
No party got a clear majority in the 2004 elections. At this time Congress-JD (S) coalition government was formed. Due to the rapid political developments that followed, the BJP-JD (S) Dosti government came into existence. Kumaraswamy, who was the Chief Minister for the first 20 months, did not give up the title of CM to Yediyurappa for the next 20 months. Thus, chaos ensued and the government fell.
Yediyurappa, who accused Kumaraswamy of corruption of vows, also got the sympathy of Lingayats across the state. Although the BJP emerged as the single largest party in 2008, it fell short of a majority by some seats. At this time, BJP, which conducted Operation Kamala, formed the Government by increasing its numerical strength.
Yediyurappa, who won a hard-fight majority in 2008 and formed the Government, was accused of corruption. He had to lose the post of CM. A march was held under Siddaramaiah against the Ballari mine owners. After that, Yediyurappa left the BJP during the 2013 elections and formed the KJP. Thus Sriramulu formed the BSRCP party. BJP party is like a house with three doors. This split in the BJP spilled over to the Congress. The Congress party came to power in the 2013 elections with a clear majority by winning 122 seats. Siddaramaiah became CM.
By the time of the 2018 general elections, there have been no developments like any party split. Thus, due to the absence of an ‘external cause’, the people again faced an unstable Assembly. Karnataka politics has a history of no party getting a clear majority in the state if there are no ‘external reasons’. This time also no such external cause has been found yet. Thus, the question arises whether an independent Assembly can be created again?