Bengaluru: Exit polls on May 10 predicted a hung Assembly in Karnataka, but with an edge for the Congress party. While most pollsters are expecting a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress, three exit polls have given Congress a clear majority. In fact, eight out of nine exit polls expect the grand old party to get over 100 seats in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly election. Almost all exit polls have predicted a loss for JD (S).
With the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls next year having already begun and at least four key states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana — going to polls later this year, the Karnataka results assume importance. In many ways, the Karnataka outcome is seen as a pointer to the 2024 General elections.
It is a high-stakes battle for both the Congress and BJP. Barring Himachal Pradesh, the Congress has not won a single state election since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. For the BJP, Karnataka is the only southern state where it is in power.
In 2018, the state threw a fractured mandate with BJP emerging as the single largest party. In last Assembly polls, BJP got 104, Congress 80 and JD (S) 37.
Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, however, dismissed exit poll figures saying: “Exit polls are exit polls, it can’t be 100% correct. We are going to get a complete majority and form the Government. I think we should wait till May 13.”
In Coastal Karnataka, most exit polls have predicted a sweep for BJP just like in 2018. The saffron party is predicted to be getting 16 seats while Congress is expected to get three – exactly what happened in last Assembly election.