Bengaluru: Even while the political parties have put behind the effect of the fatigue of the electioneering and started picking up the chords of the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. The BJP has already begun its Lok Sabha hunt in Karnataka. The strategy will be totally different for the Lok Sabha elections.
According to the BJP pollsters who are already diving deep into the analytics say that the Lok Sabha elections in the country in 2024 will be a different ball game and will have none of the factors that have worked for Congress.
According to the BJP pollsters the party secured 18 out of 28 parliamentary seats in Karnataka in 2004, despite the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance being in power in the state. The combined vote percentage of the Congress (35.27%) and the JD (S) (20.77%) in the assembly elections was 56.04%, almost double the BJP’s vote percentage of 28.33%. However, the BJP managed to win the highest number of seats (18) in the subsequent Lok Sabha elections held a month later.
In 2009, the BJP won 19 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, remaining the largest party in the state. The Congress secured 6 seats, while the JD (S) won 3 seats. The BJP’s vote percentage during the parliamentary elections was 41.93%, compared to the Congress’ 37.65% and the JD (S)’ 13.57%. Although the BJP held power in the state with 110 Assembly seats, its vote percentage was slightly lower at 33.86% during the Assembly elections. The Congress (80 seats) had a vote percentage of 34.76%, and the JD (S) (28 seats) had a vote percentage of 18.96%.
The BJP emerged as the single-largest party in Karnataka once again during the 2014 General Elections, winning 17 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress secured 9 seats, and the JD (S) won 2 seats. The BJP’s vote percentage increased to 43%, while the Congress had a vote percentage of 40.80% and the JD (S) had 11%. The BJP’s performance was notable despite the Congress holding power in the state. In the 2013 Assembly elections, the Congress formed the government with 122 seats, while the BJP won only 40 seats. The BJP’s vote percentage was 19.91%, compared to the Congress’ 36.6% and the JD (S)’à 20.2%.
During the 2019 General elections, the BJP achieved its biggest victory in Karnataka by winning 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress and JD (S) could only secure one seat each. The BJP garnered a vote percentage of 51.38%, significantly higher than the Congress’ 31.88% and the JD (S)’ 9.67%. The BJP’s sweeping performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was remarkable, despite the Congress-JD (S) alliance being in power in the state. Additionally, in the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, the Congress attained the highest vote percentage in the state with 38.14%, while the BJP obtained a vote share of 36.35%.
Political experts note that anti-incumbency has been a periodic pattern in Karnataka during state Assembly elections. The Congress’ victory in the latest elections is attributed to anti-incumbency against the BJP Government in the state.
The state leadership, including Karnataka Congress Chief D. K. Shivakumar and Former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, is credited by political experts for the Congress’ significant victory in Karnataka. These leaders are considered the driving forces behind the Congress’ success in the state.
The Congress National leadership attributes the party’s triumph in the Karnataka Assembly to Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’. However, it should be noted that Rahul Gandhi’s Yatra covered only 503 kilometres (22 out of 224 Assembly constituencies) in Karnataka and 7 Lok Sabha segments.