Bengaluru: The Congress party has to thank the Chairman of the Manifesto Committee Dr. Parameshwara. If there is any one particular point that helped the Congress win 135 seats it was due to the ‘Bajrang Dal’ ban item on the Manifesto. This phrase triggered a mass movement of Muslim voters in the state towards the Congress party. The Muslims are traditional voters of the Congress party, but what is new is that the voting percentage improved at least by 22 per cent in all parts of the state. Elections analysts are digging deep into the factors that contributed to the increased voting percentage of Muslims.
This resounding victory of the party has baffled many political analysts who had predicted only 114 to 121 seats for the Congress party. Win is seen as a potential game-changer for the party, as they believe it will sway the tide in their favour leading up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The Congress managed to secure 135 out of 224 seats, the largest majority in the state since 1989, with nearly 43% of the vote share. This mandate has thrashed all models of electioneering of the past. The Bajrang Dal ban factor mentioned on the Manifesto motivated the Muslim voters to turn out in full numbers at the polling stations
The Congress had also done its social engineering to the fullest extent. Thanks to the manifesto that triggered the full emancipation of the fear psychosis as the party had shown determination to end the bull run of the communal forces.
While political analysts anticipated caste politics to play a dominant role in the polls, the Congress took a different approach by focusing on religion. Initially, the Bajrang Dal controversy seemed like a misstep by the party. However, it ended up being a narrative that helped the Congress consolidate its Muslim voter base, as evident from the numbers.
Muslim electors demonstrated a united front in the Karnataka polls, leading to significant success for Muslim candidates. Out of the 15 Muslim candidates in the running, 9 emerged victorious. These 15 constituencies had a considerable Muslim voter population, comprising at least 20% of the electorate. An impressive 60% of the Muslim candidates managed to secure their constituencies. Analysing this narrative reveals that the solid Muslim consolidation in favour of the Congress was not accidental; rather, it was a deliberate and intentional phenomenon.
For instance, the Congress Manifesto in Karnataka included a promise to ban the Bajrang Dal, which appeared to be aimed at consolidating Muslim voters. Muslim Congress Leaders, including those in the Manifesto Drafting Committee, revealed that the proposal to ban the Bajrang Dal was introduced at the very last minute, potentially to provoke the BJP into making it a major campaign issue.
The Congress Manifesto stated, “We believe that law and the Constitution are sacrosanct and cannot be violated by individuals and organizations like Bajrang Dal, PFI (Popular Front of India), or others promoting enmity or hatred, whether among majority or minority communities. We will take decisive action as per the law, including imposing a ban on such organizations.” The inclusion of PFI seemed to be an attempt to appear balanced, even though the organisation had already been outlawed by the Union Government.
According to political analysts and leaders within the party this was a great move.
Political analysts observed a consolidation of Muslim votes supporting the Congress, with an overwhelming majority of the minority community, estimated at around 80% or more, voting for the party. Another notable shift was the transfer of Muslim votes from the JD (S) to the Congress, leading to a decrease in JD (S)’ seat share from 37 in 2018 to just 19 this time. While polarisation can be a double-edged sword, with BJP voters remaining loyal, the scattered votes that were previously divided between Congress and JD (S) consolidated in favour of Congress.
It is another matter that the Congress also benefited from the fact that the BJP was seen as being too close to Hindutva. The BJP’s aggressive Hindutva agenda alienated many voters, particularly in Karnataka, which has a large Muslim population.
The Congress’s victory in Karnataka is also a victory for secularism and pluralism in India. The BJP’s aggressive Hindutva agenda has been a major source of concern for many Indians, and the Congress’ victory is a sign that the country is not ready to embrace Hindu nationalism.