Bengaluru: Prime Minister Narendra Modi took out two roadshows in Bengaluru. The back-to-back roadshows comes at the tail end of an intense campaign for next week’s election. Less than a week before voting day, parties are making every possible attempt to win over voters.
Prime Minister’s roadshows have the potential to swing some crucial seats towards the BJP. In closely fought election like this one, every seat counts. Bengaluru Urban District is a major Electoral Block with 28 Assembly seats. In 2018, the Congress won 15 seats in the District, the BJP 11, and the JD (S) two. A strong performance in Bengaluru is critical to the BJP for a shot at returning to power. The BJP has a weaker presence in the Old Mysuru belt. In Coastal Karnataka and Kodagu, where the BJP has been traditionally strong, the party swept the elections in 2018, winning 18 out of the 21 seats. Not only is there a little scope to improve on this, but it will also be tough to replicate the strong wave seen five years ago in favour of the BJP in the region.
Bengaluru is one region where the BJP has a chance to pick up few more seats. There are certain realities that make Bengaluru a promising option for the BJP. All 28 constituencies are urban areas. Across India, and especially in Karnataka, the BJP’s popularity tends to be stronger in urban areas compared to rural regions. The city has a sizable upper-caste and middle-class population, both traditionally inclined towards the BJP. Purely by voter profile, Bengaluru City is a big opportunity for the BJP.
The results from Bengaluru Urban in 2018 offer important insights. Most of the BJP’s 11 seats were won with relatively comfortable margins. The wins at hn seven of the Congress’ 15 seats and one JD (S) seat were relatively close. In these constituencies, a shift of a few thousand votes could reverse the election results.
Three factors will be crucial in determining the success of the Prime Minister’s campaign in the city. First, can he translate his widespread popular support in the city into votes for the BJP in a state election? In national elections, his presence has clearly made a difference. The Karnataka voter tends to give more importance to local and state level factors in a state election. Modi’s ability to reverse these trends will be critical to the BJP’s success.
Second, the turnout of the urban middle class voters is relatively low. The Prime Minister’s roadshow will need to inspire a sizable chunk of these voters to come out and go to polling stations on May 10. A high turnout in Bengaluru City is crucial for the BJP.
Third, Bengaluru has a large non-Kannada speaking population. Modi’s outreach will need to penetrate this cosmopolitan chunk. More specifically, he will need to reach out to the urban voters by addressing some of their key concerns. Bengaluru’s poor infrastructure and traffic jams have tested its residents to the max. Last year’s flooding aggravated these problems. Saturday’s roadshow will need to address some of these issues.
Assembly elections in Karnataka are won and lost on small margins. In 2004, 2008 and 2018, when the BJP emerged as the single largest party, it had a vote share lower than that of the Congress. The BJP has a better strike rate of converting votes into seats. Therefore, even a one or two per cent increase in vote share could push up BJP’s seat tally significantly.