Bengaluru: The final pre-poll survey report by ABP C-Voter, which was released May 6, predicts that the Congress party is likely to win between 110 to 122 seats, making it the largest single party with a simple majority in the upcoming state Assembly elections. Meanwhile, the BJP, Congress’ main rival, is projected to secure 73-85 seats, with Janata Dal (Secular) following at 21-29 seats. The polling for the state Assembly elections is scheduled to take place on May 10.
The survey report also revealed that the BJP’s attempts to create a controversy around the ‘ban of Bajrang Dal’ have had no impact on the election results, according to the projection by the ABP C-Voter team. Another aspect that comes into question is whether BJP will not benefit from its high-profile campaigning by top leaders.
In terms of regional projections, the report suggests that the BJP is likely to secure the highest number of seats in the Coastal region due to the levels of polarisation. It is predicted that the BJP will get between 13-17 seats, followed by Congress with 4-8 seats, and JD (S) is expected to receive no seats.
In Central Karnataka, the Congress party is expected to win the highest number of seats with 20-24 seats, followed by BJP with 10-12 seats out of a total of 35 seats in this region. Meanwhile, JD (S) is predicted to do poorly here with just 0-2 seats.
In the Old Mysuru zone with 55 seats, the Congress is projected to win 24-28 seats, which would beat JD (S) with 19-24 seats. In contrast, BJP is expected to come in third place with just 4-8 seats. It’s noteworthy that BJP’s top leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and BJP National President J. P. Nadda, had campaigned heavily for their candidates here, whereas Congress had taken on JD (S) head-on in this zone.
In Greater Bengaluru, which has a total of 32 seats, Congress is expected to win by a narrow margin of not more than 2 seats. The survey team has projected Congress to win 14-18 seats, while the BJP may win 12-16 seats. JD (S) is expected to win only 1-4 seats. This zone is one of the most fiercely contested battlegrounds, with a fully urbanised population.
The largest chunk of seats for Congress and BJP is predicted to come from the Mumbai Karnataka zone, which has a total of 50 seats. The Congress may win 24-28 seats, followed by the BJP at 22-26 seats, with JD (S) projected to win at most 1 seat. It was in this zone that the Congress party secured a significant victory by onboarding Former Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar, a big Lingayat leader, which shifted the zone’s tenor towards Congress.
The Hyderabad Karnataka zone, which is propelled by AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge, is expected to give Congress the largest lead in the number of seats against the BJP. The survey results suggest that Congress may win 18-22 seats against BJP’s 6-10 seats, with JDS projected to win 0-2 seats.
Finally, in terms of the vote percentage, Congress is predicted to lead with 40% vote share, followed by BJP with 36%, and JD (S) with 16%.
