Bengaluru: After the polling phase, there will be a 48-hour waiting period before the results are known. Those who lack patience can, however, rely on the “close to reality” exit polls produced by various research institutions and political consulting firms. These polls predict that the Indian National Congress (INC) will win 98–115 seats in the Assembly, knocking the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) down to second place with 89–95 seats. It is anticipated that the Janata Dal Secular (JDS) will win between 24 and 29 seats, with the remaining seats being distributed among the other parties.
A noteworthy aspect for the Congress is their resurgence across all five zones: Coastal, Kittur Karnataka, Kalyana Karnataka, Central Karnataka, and Bangalore zone. The exit polls indicate an improvement of at least 25-27 percent in their position, signifying a significant leap forward.
Particularly in the “polarised” coastal zone, the INC is making a remarkable comeback by securing five out of the 19 seats. In the 2018 elections, the INC managed to win only one seat in Mangalore City (formerly Ullal) by a decent margin. However, this time around, they are expected to secure additional victories in Mangalore City South Constituency, Puttur, Byndoor, and Bhatkal, albeit with narrow margins. Furthermore, if all goes according to plan, the Haliyal Constituency may also prove to be a bonus for the INC.
The outgoing Chief Minister, Basavaraj Bommai, has expressed doubts about the accuracy of exit polls. Nonetheless, five different companies, including Republic TV, have conducted exit polls, and their projections have brought good news for the INC. This holds significant meaning, considering that Republic TV is known for being a staunch critic of the INC. Such support from an unexpected source brings comfort to the party.
With the INC teetering on the edge of a simple majority, it may require external assistance. The Janata Dal Secular (JDS), as a natural ally, stands ready to lend their support after securing their share of seats. Observing the evening’s exit polls, B. S. Yediyurappa, a core committee member of the BJP and Former Minister, hinted that if the BJP falls short of the required seats for a simple majority, they might consider aligning with a friendly party that previously had associations with their own party.
Nonetheless, the BJP’s leadership in the state remains hopeful that the charisma of Modi and Shah will work in their favor. However, considering the equanimous nature of the exit polls, the BJP might attempt to disrupt the INC’s celebration by forming a coalition.