Bengaluru: Even while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is engaged in some soul-searching as to what happened in the Assembly elections in Karnataka and why it got such a bad drubbing at the hands of a party that the BJP had thought had been finished with BJP suffering a sizable loss, which begs the question of why the party, which was confident of retaking power, did so. The state leadership and the party both saw it coming. Here are a few intriguing observations:
Anti-incumbency wave: There was a clear anti-ruling sentiment against the BJP in Karnataka, fueled by allegations of overthrowing the Coalition Government, unconstitutional actions, and accusations of corruption, with Congress effectively capitalising on this sentiment through their “Pay CM” campaign.
Neglect of B. S. Yediyurappa: Former CM B. S. Yediyurappa, who played a crucial role in the BJP’s rise to power in Karnataka, felt neglected this time, leading to internal strife within the party and a lack of damage control.
Discontent among the Lingayat community: Despite making promises to various communities, including the Lingayat community, the BJP failed to retain its strong support from this group, as well as from Dalits, Adivasis, OBCs, and Vokkaligas.
Performance of Basavaraj Bommai: The BJP’s decision to replace Yediyurappa with Basavaraj Bommai as Chief Minister resulted in a lack of a strong political face and failed to meet the expectations of the masses for change and progress. In contrast, the Congress had prominent figures like D. K. Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah as CM aspirants.
Neglect of senior leaders: The BJP overlooked senior leaders like Yediyurappa, Jagadish Shettar, and Laxman Savadi, which led to the disillusionment and the latter two’s subsequent joining of the Congress. Not giving tickets to 20 sitting MLAs and favouring 75 new MLAs also proved to be a wrong decision.
Dependence on central leaders: State BJP leaders relied heavily on central leaders such as Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, J. P. Nadda, and Yogi Adityanath, rather than promoting local leaders and highlighting successful state-level schemes.
Allegations of corruption: Cases involving corruption, such as the suicide of a contractor during Eshwarappa’s tenure as rural development minister and the imprisonment of Channagiri MLA Madal Virupakshappa and his son, harmed the BJP’s image.
BJP has a clear majority in only 6 states out of 29. On the other hand BJP has…
0 seats in Sikkim
0 seats in Mizoram
0 seats in Tamil Nadu
4/175 in Andhra
1/140 in Kerala
3/117 in Punjab
74/294 in Bengal
5/119 in Telangana
8/70 in Delhi
10/147 in Odisha
12/60 in Nagaland
2/60 in Meghalaya
53/243 in Bihar
25/87 in J&K
20/40 seats in Goa
Thus, BJP has only 1516 seats in the whole country while total assembly seats are 4139. In that too 950 seats are from 6 states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP, MP, and Rajasthan only. Even today, BJP has been defeated in 66 percent of the seats in the country. Which is why the BJP Union Government is not in a position to implement a Uniform Civil Code and other common laws.
Limited success of Hindutva agenda: Attempts by BJP leaders in Karnataka to weaponise issues like Bajrang Dal, Halal, Hijab, Azaan, and Bajrangi, in response to Congress’s promise to ban Bajrang Dal, did not yield the desired results, unlike in states like Uttar Pradesh.
Overall, a combination of factors, including anti-incumbency sentiment, internal party dynamics, failure to retain key voter bases, leadership issues, corruption allegations, and limited success with the Hindutva agenda, contributed to the BJP’s defeat in Karnataka.