The world is watching Niger’s unrest closely as the junta arrests key lawmakers after deposing the democratically elected government. The development is a blow for the Western world and its regional campaign on Islamist militancy. This is West and Central Africa’s seventh military coup in the previous three years. According to CNN, Wagner Group CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin has hailed the coup and blamed the situation in Niger on the heritage of colonialism.
Many people held Russian flags and shouted anti-French slogans at pro-junta demonstrations. According to the BBC, a businessman from Niger proudly sported an attire in the colours of the Russian flag. The antipathy against the West and preference for Russia raises concerns about Russia’s likely involvement in the coup.
Experts weigh in on Russia’s involvement in Niger.
“Yes, there appears to be a high level of instability throughout the Sahel region, with coups occurring one after the other and instability spreading, the rise of Islamist groups, and so on.” “I think the role Wagner Group is playing is not obvious, but as France is being blamed for mal-governance and inability to manage Islamist groups, the void is being filled by the Wagner Group and, in the guise of Wagner Group, Russia,” said Professor Harsh V. Pant, Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation.
Professor Pant went on to say that it is the failure of democratic governments to deliver that is allowing various organisations to intervene in the country’s running.
“It is not entirely clear how Russia’s entry into this part of the world helps, whether in resolving governance issues or managing Islamists, but I believe that the institutional failures of democratic governments to deliver are creating space for all kinds of groups to emerge, and for groups like Wagner to play an important role.” In that environment, Russia’s expanding influence in the region may not come as a surprise,” he noted.
The experts pointed out that Russia has a strategy for producing global instability, which could jeopardise the international order’s ability to sustain peace in the long run. The coup in Niger is certain to imperil larger Western efforts to combat Islamic extremism in Africa, they added.
“While the Wagner Group has praised the coup and views it as a step towards independence from the West, it is important to remember that the Kremlin has expressed concerns about the situation, particularly in response to the Wagner Group’s celebration of the coup.” Despite this, it is critical to remember that Russia has a strategy for causing global instability, which could jeopardise the international order’s ability to maintain peace in the long run,” said Dr. Rishi Gupta, Research Fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute.
“At the same time, it is important to remember that Niger has been dealing with Islamist extremism for years, led by fighters affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.” It is difficult to predict how the Niger coup would effect broader Western attempts to combat Islamic extremism in Africa, but it is evident that the Niger coup will imperil broader Western efforts to combat Islamic extremism in Africa. Furthermore, the coup may result in a power vacuum, which will be damaging to the overall security efforts. With the current administration in place, Niger will endure extended instability, and Western countries and international organisations striving to combat Islamic terrorism in Africa would face significant defeats,” Dr. Gupta stated.
‘Wagner Group wishes to increase its presence in Africa.’
“In my opinion, the French colonised Niger, and the people there are tired of French loot and plunder.” Russia appears to be a reliable ally. In fact, Moscow views the coup positively. Concerning the Wagner group, it is already quite active in neighbouring areas such as Mali and wishes to increase its footprint in Africa. But I’m not sure who will emerge as more influential in Niger in the future, Putin or the Wagner group, only time will tell,” said Dr. Martand Jha, Doctoral Fellow at Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.